Question: What do the following sayings have in common?
- An apple a day keeps the doctor away…
- Better late than never…
- High fences make good neighbors…
- Always play the Pass, Come and take full odds!
Answer: They are all true.
Playing the Pass/Come with odds, although even the mathematically best overall strategy cannot guarantee that you will win at craps in the long run, such advice can only guarantee that you’ll lose the least amount in the long run based on your total amount wagered.
So, the above are ‘true truths’
Now, what do the following statements have in common?
- If something that should happen a certain percentage of the time has not happened that percentage of the time, it will happen in the future…
- Win 80 percent of your decisions at craps “guaranteed!”
- Win 99 percent of your betting sequences at craps “guaranteed!”
- Protect your Pass Line bet from losing on the Come Out “guaranteed!”
The above statements are all true as well. Yet, they are as false as ‘dicers oaths’ as Shakespeare put it. Thus, the above are ‘false truths’.
True Truths
True truths are mundane, especially in craps. Pass/Come betting with odds is boring for many craps players who just love the action and cannot be bothered with making this two-step process of going up on the Pass and/or Come, waiting for the dice to roll a point number, then placing the full odds on the number and pray it hits before the dreaded 7. Even the eight times in 36 when they win on a 7 and 11 during Come-Out rolls just is not all that exciting.
Let me quickly establish why Pass/Come and Don’t Pass/Don’t Come with full odds are the absolute best betting approaches to the game of craps. It is all in the math. When you bet a Pass or Come bet of X and then take 2X in odds, the casino’s overall edge on you is a mere 0.61 percent (fractionally less on the don’t). That’s right! Your expectation is to lose a measly 61 cents for every $100 you bet in this fashion. In a 5X odds game, the casino edge is 0.33 percent, in 10X odds games it is 0.18 percent, and in 20X odds games, it is 0.10 percent, one dime for every $100 wagered. That is about as close a mathematical contest as most players are likely to see in a casino.
Systems
When someone creates or buys a ‘system’ he is looking to overcome the math of the game by utilizing some kind of betting scheme that outwits the game’s probabilistic theoretical underpinnings. In craps, some systems have a kind of compelling (though superficial) logic behind them. Some systems are absolutely ridiculous. And some seem to actually work until you realize they are not saving you money- they are losing you even
more money.
The Ridiculous
Ridiculous systems are usually poorly thought out exercises in ‘the gambler’s fallacy’which just means if something hasn’t happened for a while it must be ‘due’ to happen soon. You will find that many people who bet the hardways and the one-roll Crazy Crapper proposition bets will tend to fall for this type of thinking. ‘Hey, the yo-eleven hasn’t come up for awhile; it must be due!’ Crazy Crapper bets have edges bordering on 10 percent or higher. The ‘yo-eleven’ (which actually means eleven-eleven) has an uncanny 11.11 percent edge (who says God does not work in mysterious ways?). You will lose $11.11 for every $100 wagered on the ‘yo-eleven’
So, when you are playing craps, keep in mind the true truths and systems. By thinking ahead and using hard mathematics, you can win at craps and avoid getting beat by the ridiculous bets.
